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It will be interesting to see what the corporate landscape will look like when we get to the other side of the recession.  According to a report by The McKinsey Quarterly, it will be quite different to how it looks now.

“[After analyzing] nearly 700 high-tech companies during contractions in markets around the world over the past two decades. [They] found that the turmoil accompanying downturns significantly reconfigures the high-tech landscape. About half of the companies that entered these downturns as leaders—the top 20 percent—ended up as laggards when the economy regained momentum.”

There are many ways that this could come about of course, some are:

1. The leaders were slow to react to changing economic pressures and costs dragged them down
2. The leaders saved cash and did not invest in technology to keep up with market demands
3. Entrants or non-leaders innovated around the leaders with a business model that the downturn actually strengthened

Of course, “business model” is not limited to “pricing” or “cost structure”.  It could include the channel, licensing model, support structure, etc.  Everything that goes towards how a company makes and uses money.

In a software-based industry, there is a great deal of opportunity in #3.  And if you’re interested in discussing how Xuropa can help your company take advantage of the environment, please drop me a line via Twitter (sfojames), LinkedIn, or Xuropa.

Posted under Xuropa, business, industry

Mark LaPedus over at EETimes reported IDC’s findings on the state of the IC industry.

The bad news, expected by many, was a steep decline in IC industry revenue of 22% in 2009.  Gartner predicts revenues to fall by 20% this year.

As consumer confidence, which hit an all-time-low of 25 (1985=100) yesterday, continues to move south there is no visibility as to when people will go out there and buy mobile phones, game consoles, cars, PC, DVD’s, etc. again.

And while systems companies slow down production of their products, inventories of chips rise forcing a drop in prices due to further supply/demand pressures.  A pretty vicious circle.

However, IDC are talking about a “bottom” to the macroeconomic situation.  This is projected to be towards the end of 2009 and will lead to a recovery in 2010. 

The burden for this recovery is apparently to be carried by the US.  No surprises here, but as a European (combined population 730 million) it leaves me wondering what leaders on the other side of the Atlantic are doing.

The more we start talking about “the bottom” the more real it will become.  Consumer confidence is built upon how people feel about the future.  It’s not about “today”.  It’s an abstract concept that can be influenced.

The stimulus package will help in reality, but it will help first through psychology. 

Some are talking about the need for Obama to become “Cheerleader in Chief”.  There needs to be more “Obamas” though.  We need leaders in every different segment, those people with vision and a longer term view, to chart our way through this. 

As people understand better how this can all be turned around at the macro level they’ll better understand it at a personal level.  And this will be a step in the right direction.

Posted under industry